How a Single Courtroom DesignatiDems Are Underestimating JD Vance For 2028: Liberal Hoston in the Erika Kirk Case Is Redefining Victim Advocacy Law
JD Vance 2028 buzz is growing fast among Republicans. Political analyst Chris Cillizza recently warned Democrats they underestimate the vice president “at their own peril.” Early polls show Vance leading the GOP field by a wide margin. Grassroots conservatives gave him overwhelming support at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest. Even with three years until the election, these numbers stand out.
Many wonder: Can a sitting vice president lock in the nomination so early? Polls and endorsements suggest Vance has momentum. Let’s look at the latest data, reactions, and what it means for 2028.
Strong Early Polling Numbers for JD Vance
An Emerson College poll released last week put Vance at 46% favorability. That figure topped several well-known Republicans and Democrats. On X, Cillizza pointed to the results as proof of Vance’s broad appeal.
During a YouTube live stream, Cillizza said he feels “pretty bullish” on Vance. He repeated his warning: Democrats ignore Vance’s strength at their own risk.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten echoed that view. He highlighted Vance’s 40% lead in early GOP nomination polling. No other contender comes close.
Enten added a key historical note. Since 1980, early frontrunners have won their party’s nomination 63% of the time. Vance’s position fits that pattern.
Turning Point USA Straw Poll Delivers a Landslide
At AmericaFest in Phoenix, grassroots conservatives voted in a straw poll. JD Vance captured 84.2% support. That crushed the competition.
Marco Rubio: 4.8%
Ron DeSantis: 2.9%
Donald Trump Jr.: 1.8%
Blake Neff, producer of the “Charlie Kirk Show,” noted the result on X. He pointed out Vance outperformed Trump’s 2024 straw poll win from two years earlier (82.6%).
The crowd’s energy showed real enthusiasm. Vance closed the event as the final speaker.
Erika Kirk’s Public Endorsement Stands Out
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, delivered a clear message. She told thousands of attendees they would help elect “my husband’s friend JD Vance” in 2028.
The line drew loud cheers. Many saw it as a strong endorsement. Turning Point USA has grown into a powerful force. Its campus network, digital reach, and activist base can mobilize voters quickly.
For conservatives, that support could prove decisive in primaries.
Vance Focuses on Midterms, Not 2028 Yet
Vance has downplayed personal plans. On Fox News’ “Hannity,” he stressed winning the 2026 midterms first. He said he would discuss any future run with President Trump afterward.
Still, Vance does not shy away from politics. In his AmericaFest speech, he took aim at potential Democratic rivals. He called out California leaders for rolling blackouts, open borders, and gang violence. He predicted Democrats would choose between Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris.
Why These Early Signs Matter
Three years remain until 2028. Yet history shows early momentum often lasts. Sitting vice presidents usually start with advantages. Name recognition helps. Party loyalty helps more.
Democrats face a challenge. If they dismiss Vance now, they risk falling behind. Cillizza and Enten both see that danger clearly.
Meanwhile, Trump has not endorsed anyone. His influence stays huge among the base. Any future statement from him could shift dynamics.
What Comes Next for JD Vance in 2028
The next two years will test Vance’s position. Strong midterm results could boost him further. Turning Point USA and other groups may keep building support.
Democrats will watch closely. They need a strategy to counter his appeal. Early polling gives Republicans reason for optimism.
For more details, check the Emerson College poll or CNN analysis with Harry Enten.
FAQ on JD Vance 2028 Prospects
How strong is JD Vance leading in GOP polls? He holds 40% in early nomination surveys. No one else is close.
What did the Turning Point USA straw poll show? Vance won 84.2% support. That beat Trump’s 2024 straw poll result.
Has Vance said he is running in 2028? No. He focuses on the 2026 midterms first.
Why do analysts warn Democrats about Vance? His favorability and grassroots support look formidable early.
What do you think about JD Vance’s early lead? Does it surprise you, or feel expected? Share your thoughts below.
Nearly 150,000 California Mail Ballots Rejected In Primary
California election officials are examining why nearly 150,000 mail-in ballots were rejected during the state’s June primary, with late-arriving ballots accounting for most of the increase.
The higher rejection rate comes despite years of election law changes designed to make voting more accessible and ensure more ballots are ultimately counted.
According to data compiled by the California Secretary of State’s office, 148,241 mail-in ballots were rejected during the June primary, representing 1.73% of all mail ballots returned.
That marks an increase from the 2024 primary, when 108,982 ballots were rejected, or 1.56% of all mail ballots cast.
The largest reason for rejection was ballots arriving too late to qualify under California law.
State data shows that 93,479 ballots were rejected because they failed to meet the state’s deadline requirements.
California allows mail ballots to arrive up to seven days after Election Day, provided they are postmarked on or before Election Day.
Voting experts believe many of the rejected ballots received postmarks dated after Election Day, making them ineligible to be counted even if they arrived within the seven-day grace period.
Kim Alexander, president of the nonpartisan California Voter Foundation, said the timing of postal processing appears to be a significant concern.
“Ballots rejected due to lateness are caused primarily to being postmarked too late to count, not because they arrived too late to count,” Alexander said.
Election experts have questioned whether recent operational changes within the U.S. Postal Service may be contributing to delayed postmarks.
Earlier this year, a group of mostly Democratic U.S. senators wrote to the Postal Service expressing concern that mail-processing changes could affect ballot handling during federal elections.
Updated Postal Service procedures mean postmarks may reflect when mail is processed at regional facilities rather than when it first enters the mail system.
Because processing centers have been consolidated in some areas, election officials have warned that postmark timing could be affected.
Before the June primary, California election officials encouraged voters to mail ballots as early as possible because of potential postal delays.
The June election also featured a highly competitive race for governor, which some experts believe encouraged many voters to wait until the final days before casting ballots.
In addition to late-arriving ballots, approximately 44,000 ballots were rejected because election officials determined the voter’s signature did not match the signature on file.
Another 8,300 ballots were rejected because the return envelope did not contain a signature.
State records also show that 743 ballots were rejected because those voters had already cast another ballot.
Other rejected ballots involved missing ballots inside return envelopes or multiple ballots submitted in a single envelope.
The highest rejection rate in the state occurred in Tulare County, where 3.52% of returned mail ballots were rejected.
Alpine County and Merced County followed closely, each recording rejection rates of 3.36%.
California has frequently faced criticism for taking weeks to complete vote counting after major elections, largely because state law permits ballots meeting certain requirements to continue arriving after Election Day.
Following the June primary, President Donald Trump again criticized California’s election system, while the Department of Justice opened an investigation into election administration in Los Angeles County.
Election experts emphasize that the increase in rejected ballots should not be interpreted as evidence of widespread voter fraud.
A 2025 report by the Brookings Institution found documented cases of mail ballot fraud remained extremely rare, estimating roughly four cases for every 10 million mail ballots cast, The Associated Press reported.
State officials have not identified evidence of widespread fraud connected to the June primary, but the increase in rejected ballots is expected to receive additional scrutiny as election administrators evaluate whether changes in postal operations, voter behavior or election procedures contributed to the higher rejection rate.
