Republicans Surge in Early Voting in California Primary
There’s been some major movement less than one month before the primary elections in California, and it has Democrats worried.
The California Secretary of State’s office has released the official report on the number of ballots returned so far in the June primary.
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The data shows that Republicans are surging so far, stoking fear among Democrats ahead of the June 2 primaries in the deep blue state.
The report shows the Republican share of “early” voters in California has spiked and is running more than 9 percent above voter registration.
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The report also shows that Democratic turnout is way down. Below is a breakdown of the numbers:
–Democrat Share of Early Ballot Returns
41% (down 7% from 2022)
–Republican Share of Early Ballot Returns
34% (up 8% from 2022)
–Independent Share of Early Ballot Returns
25% (up 2% from 2022)
Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, a San Diego Republican, cautioned against over-interpreting the numbers but said the trend is encouraging for conservatives.
“When you take a look at the numbers, both in comparison to the numbers four years ago and voter registration, Democrats are way down and Republicans are up in early voting,” DeMaio told The Post.
“It may mean that many Democrats are taking longer to decide on the governor’s race and who ultimately they want to lead,” DeMaio added.
Paul Mitchell with Political Data Inc. noted that it’s still early in the election period.
“The early days part is important because some of what we’re seeing is which counties are quicker at returning the data to us,” Mitchell said.
While that is true, older, conservative voters and landlords who are Republicans have voted more than any other party.
4.3% of people aged 65 and up went to the polls. People aged 50 to 64 made up 2%, people aged 35 to 49 made up 1.1%, and people aged 18 to 34 made up 0.7%.
“It’s kind of typical of a low-turnout election that these are the people that always vote in every election. They probably almost always vote early, and they’re getting their ballots in right away,” Mitchell said.
The tracker shows that 2.6% of votes were white, making them the most common racial group. 2.3% were Asian, 1.6% were Black, and 1.2% were Latino.
Mitchell said that the patterns seen in early voting don’t always hold up at the end of the voting process.
“We see these patterns where some voters still want to vote at the polls,” he said, noting older Latinos in particular.
Mitchell said that in the past, older voters were some of the first to use mail-in ballots, and a lot of those early users were Republicans.
“We did see some stuff in 2020 when Republicans and the Trump administration said ‘Don’t vote by mail,’ where that started to drop off. But it seems like it might be returning,” he said.
Mitchell also said that the primary races for governor are usually the ones with the fewest voters. He said that most people turn in their ballots at the end of the election term.
For people in rural areas who want to make sure their ballots are stamped in time to be counted, the Postal Service tells them to vote at least a week before they mail them back.
People are paying close attention to the race for governor.
For the Democrats, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, and former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter are at the top of the field. In recent weeks, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa have been more negative.
Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, seems to have a strong lead over Chad Bianco for sheriff of Riverside County on the Republican side.
Most polls show that Becerra and Hilton are the most likely candidates to make it out of the state’s “jungle” primary system.
This system doesn’t care about party membership and has made people on both sides of the political spectrum nervous about not making it to the November runoff.
Nearly 150,000 California Mail Ballots Rejected In Primary
California election officials are examining why nearly 150,000 mail-in ballots were rejected during the state’s June primary, with late-arriving ballots accounting for most of the increase.
The higher rejection rate comes despite years of election law changes designed to make voting more accessible and ensure more ballots are ultimately counted.
According to data compiled by the California Secretary of State’s office, 148,241 mail-in ballots were rejected during the June primary, representing 1.73% of all mail ballots returned.
That marks an increase from the 2024 primary, when 108,982 ballots were rejected, or 1.56% of all mail ballots cast.
The largest reason for rejection was ballots arriving too late to qualify under California law.
State data shows that 93,479 ballots were rejected because they failed to meet the state’s deadline requirements.
California allows mail ballots to arrive up to seven days after Election Day, provided they are postmarked on or before Election Day.
Voting experts believe many of the rejected ballots received postmarks dated after Election Day, making them ineligible to be counted even if they arrived within the seven-day grace period.
Kim Alexander, president of the nonpartisan California Voter Foundation, said the timing of postal processing appears to be a significant concern.
“Ballots rejected due to lateness are caused primarily to being postmarked too late to count, not because they arrived too late to count,” Alexander said.
Election experts have questioned whether recent operational changes within the U.S. Postal Service may be contributing to delayed postmarks.
Earlier this year, a group of mostly Democratic U.S. senators wrote to the Postal Service expressing concern that mail-processing changes could affect ballot handling during federal elections.
Updated Postal Service procedures mean postmarks may reflect when mail is processed at regional facilities rather than when it first enters the mail system.
Because processing centers have been consolidated in some areas, election officials have warned that postmark timing could be affected.
Before the June primary, California election officials encouraged voters to mail ballots as early as possible because of potential postal delays.
The June election also featured a highly competitive race for governor, which some experts believe encouraged many voters to wait until the final days before casting ballots.
In addition to late-arriving ballots, approximately 44,000 ballots were rejected because election officials determined the voter’s signature did not match the signature on file.
Another 8,300 ballots were rejected because the return envelope did not contain a signature.
State records also show that 743 ballots were rejected because those voters had already cast another ballot.
Other rejected ballots involved missing ballots inside return envelopes or multiple ballots submitted in a single envelope.
The highest rejection rate in the state occurred in Tulare County, where 3.52% of returned mail ballots were rejected.
Alpine County and Merced County followed closely, each recording rejection rates of 3.36%.
California has frequently faced criticism for taking weeks to complete vote counting after major elections, largely because state law permits ballots meeting certain requirements to continue arriving after Election Day.
Following the June primary, President Donald Trump again criticized California’s election system, while the Department of Justice opened an investigation into election administration in Los Angeles County.
Election experts emphasize that the increase in rejected ballots should not be interpreted as evidence of widespread voter fraud.
A 2025 report by the Brookings Institution found documented cases of mail ballot fraud remained extremely rare, estimating roughly four cases for every 10 million mail ballots cast, The Associated Press reported.
State officials have not identified evidence of widespread fraud connected to the June primary, but the increase in rejected ballots is expected to receive additional scrutiny as election administrators evaluate whether changes in postal operations, voter behavior or election procedures contributed to the higher rejection rate.
