AI Model Makes Stunning Prediction of 2028 Presidential Winner
WASHINGTON, D.C. — APRIL 24, 2026 — An artificial intelligence model has generated a viral, speculative forecast for the 2028 U.S. presidential election, projecting a decisive victory for Vice President JD Vance over former Vice President Kamala Harris.
The simulation, conducted using Elon Musk’s AI chatbot Grok and featured on a popular YouTube channel, analyzed early primary polling, state-by-state partisan trends, and hypothetical electoral maps to predict the outcome of the 2028 matchup.
I. The 2028 Primary Landscape
Before simulating the general election, the AI assessed the current primary polling data for both major parties.
The Democratic Field:
Despite being written off by some following the 2024 election, Kamala Harris is showing a strong resurgence. Betting markets now suggest there is a 56% chance she will seek the nomination, a massive increase from 11.2% just months ago.
Kamala Harris: 32.0%
Gov. Gavin Newsom: 23.8%
Pete Buttigieg: ~10.0%
Trailing closely: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gov. Josh Shapiro.
The Republican Field:
Vice President JD Vance holds a commanding lead, with the simulation giving him a 46% chance of becoming the GOP standard-bearer.
Vice President JD Vance: 49.2%
Donald Trump Jr.: ~20.2% (Trailing by 29 points)
Sen. Marco Rubio: 12.5% (18% chance of nomination)
Gov. Ron DeSantis: 9.2%
II. The AI Electoral Map Projections
The Grok AI model categorized the electoral map into tiers based on projected margins of victory.
Vance's Projected Path
-
Solid States (+15 points or more): Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, most of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Ohio.
Note: The model views Ohio as a definitive GOP stronghold now, especially following Donald Trump’s double-digit win there in 2024.
Likely States (+5 to 15 points): Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Alaska, and Maine’s 2nd congressional district.
Electoral Base: Combining his "Solid" and "Likely" states, Vance starts the simulation with 246 electoral votes, leaving him just 24 votes shy of the presidency before toss-up states are even counted.
Harris's Projected Path
Solid States (+15 points or more): Washington, California, Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Maine’s 1st congressional district.
Note: The model predicts that Connecticut and Delaware will return to solid Democratic margins after tighter races in 2020.
Electoral Base: Harris's "Solid" category provides her with a starting base of 108 electoral votes.
III. The Final Tally
After allocating the remaining battleground states, the Grok AI simulation forecasts a comfortable electoral victory for the Republican ticket.
CandidateProjected Electoral VotesStatusJD Vance (R)312Projected WinnerKamala Harris (D)212Defeated
Nearly 150,000 California Mail Ballots Rejected In Primary
California election officials are examining why nearly 150,000 mail-in ballots were rejected during the state’s June primary, with late-arriving ballots accounting for most of the increase.
The higher rejection rate comes despite years of election law changes designed to make voting more accessible and ensure more ballots are ultimately counted.
According to data compiled by the California Secretary of State’s office, 148,241 mail-in ballots were rejected during the June primary, representing 1.73% of all mail ballots returned.
That marks an increase from the 2024 primary, when 108,982 ballots were rejected, or 1.56% of all mail ballots cast.
The largest reason for rejection was ballots arriving too late to qualify under California law.
State data shows that 93,479 ballots were rejected because they failed to meet the state’s deadline requirements.
California allows mail ballots to arrive up to seven days after Election Day, provided they are postmarked on or before Election Day.
Voting experts believe many of the rejected ballots received postmarks dated after Election Day, making them ineligible to be counted even if they arrived within the seven-day grace period.
Kim Alexander, president of the nonpartisan California Voter Foundation, said the timing of postal processing appears to be a significant concern.
“Ballots rejected due to lateness are caused primarily to being postmarked too late to count, not because they arrived too late to count,” Alexander said.
Election experts have questioned whether recent operational changes within the U.S. Postal Service may be contributing to delayed postmarks.
Earlier this year, a group of mostly Democratic U.S. senators wrote to the Postal Service expressing concern that mail-processing changes could affect ballot handling during federal elections.
Updated Postal Service procedures mean postmarks may reflect when mail is processed at regional facilities rather than when it first enters the mail system.
Because processing centers have been consolidated in some areas, election officials have warned that postmark timing could be affected.
Before the June primary, California election officials encouraged voters to mail ballots as early as possible because of potential postal delays.
The June election also featured a highly competitive race for governor, which some experts believe encouraged many voters to wait until the final days before casting ballots.
In addition to late-arriving ballots, approximately 44,000 ballots were rejected because election officials determined the voter’s signature did not match the signature on file.
Another 8,300 ballots were rejected because the return envelope did not contain a signature.
State records also show that 743 ballots were rejected because those voters had already cast another ballot.
Other rejected ballots involved missing ballots inside return envelopes or multiple ballots submitted in a single envelope.
The highest rejection rate in the state occurred in Tulare County, where 3.52% of returned mail ballots were rejected.
Alpine County and Merced County followed closely, each recording rejection rates of 3.36%.
California has frequently faced criticism for taking weeks to complete vote counting after major elections, largely because state law permits ballots meeting certain requirements to continue arriving after Election Day.
Following the June primary, President Donald Trump again criticized California’s election system, while the Department of Justice opened an investigation into election administration in Los Angeles County.
Election experts emphasize that the increase in rejected ballots should not be interpreted as evidence of widespread voter fraud.
A 2025 report by the Brookings Institution found documented cases of mail ballot fraud remained extremely rare, estimating roughly four cases for every 10 million mail ballots cast, The Associated Press reported.
State officials have not identified evidence of widespread fraud connected to the June primary, but the increase in rejected ballots is expected to receive additional scrutiny as election administrators evaluate whether changes in postal operations, voter behavior or election procedures contributed to the higher rejection rate.
